WHAT IS GOING ON? INSIGHTS FROM CRRC SURVEY DATA IN GEORGIA AND THE CAUCASUS

By Julia Hon and Tamuna Khoshtaria

Politicians and pundits are happy to tell us what they think is going on in the Caucasus. We may try to draw our own conclusions as well, based on our own observations, what we read, or anecdotes we hear from friends or coworkers. These personal insights are valuable, but they don’t allow us to generalize in any reliable fashion. In more extreme cases, people in discussions can end up talking at cross-purposes, unable to agree on any of the facts. How, then, can we really find out who people in the Caucasus are, what they do, and how they think? Survey data from the Caucasus Research Resource Centers (CRRC) offer a window into the lives of people in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. CRRC’s yearly Data Initiative (DI) is the largest annual coordinated data-gathering effort in the Caucasus – and one of the few surveys providing quality data on a wide range of political, economic, social and cultural issues.For the DI 2008, nearly 6000 face-to-face interviews were conducted using nationally representative samples from the three countries to collect data; the Politics and Protest survey was carried out across Georgia with a total of over 1800 respondents. This article presents some snapshots from the 2008 DI, as well as the CRRC’s May 2009 survey on politics and protests in Georgia. Both, however, are broader instruments than is reflected here.

Open for Business

All three countries in the South Caucasus share a relatively open attitude when it comes to doing business with the rest of the world. The prospect of growing international trade is endorsed by the great majority of respondents, with only between 4% (Azerbaijan) and 7% (Armenia) disapproving of increased business ties with other countries. At the same time, many of those surveyed assert that they do not feel the effects of economic globalization in their own lives: 58% in Armenia, 35% in Azerbaijan and 48% in Georgia say that increased trade has had no effect on them and their families (supermarket shelves and storefronts stocked with foreign goods notwithstanding, apparently).

Attitudes toward trade with Russia show more variation. Armenians embrace the idea of Russia as an economic partner: fully 75% say that Russian companies should be allowed to purchase businesses in their country (compared to 23% in Azerbaijan and 32% in Georgia). All of the countries are fairly willing to do business with Russia – even Georgia. Although Georgians are the least enthusiastic in the Caucasus about trade with Russia, almost half of those surveyed say that they believe limiting trade with Russia would be a bad idea. Remarkably, despite the continuing political turmoil between Georgia and Russia, many Georgians still see Russia as an economic partner.

Friends, Family and Political Engagement

If we step away from economic attitudes, other differences between the countries emerge. CRRC’s data also describes social networks in the Caucasus – how people are engaged with (or disengaged from) their society, community and friends and family. Chart 1 shows us something about the size of social circles in each of the three countries.  In Armenia and Azerbaijan, many people say they have just a few close friends – and 20% and 29%, respectively, state that they have no close friends at all. Women’s social spheres tend to be more restricted than men’s – particularly in Azerbaijan, where 37% of women said they have no close friends, compared to 17% of men. In Georgia, there are far fewer friendless folks in general, and many more who say that their circle of friends is wider.

This question shows us only one dimension of social networks, however: when respondents were asked if they have plenty of people they can rely on when they have problems, answers were roughly equal in Azerbaijan and Georgia (with 34% in each country answering in the affirmative).  Azerbaijanis, with smaller numbers of close friends, may still be able to turn to family members in times of trouble.

How do these social networks correspond to social and political engagement in the South Caucasus countries? In all three countries, people tend to keep politics out of their personal relationships and everyday lives. Only 26% of respondents in Georgia, and 22% in Armenia, said they discussed politics with friends or colleagues in the past six months. People are more atomized in Azerbaijan, where just 8% had had a political discussion with friends. A similar pattern appears when we asked whether people read a newspaper within the last 6 months: just over half of Armenians and 56% of Georgians did so, whereas only 26% of Azerbaijanis turned to print media to find out about the world. However, in Azerbaijan, more people said they gave to charity and did volunteer work – possibly reflecting both the influence of Islam and ongoing traditions of community-mandated volunteerism from the Soviet period.

In their attitudes toward the government in general, people in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia often express differing values. When asked, for example, whether the government should be more like a parent (and its citizens the children) or like an employee (and its citizens the boss), 45% of Georgians agreed with the latter statement – much more than in Armenia (25%) or Azerbaijan (also 25%). In Armenia and Azerbaijan, there is still considerable support for a strong, paternalistic state, while more people in Georgia are oriented toward a democratic government.

Politics and Protests in Georgia

Dynamic Georgia felt the impact of politics this year, as those opposing the current government took to the streets in protest in the spring. In May, CRRC asked Georgians a series of questions about their attitudes toward the government and the protests, and about problems confronting Georgia. One way to gauge satisfaction with the government is to see whether people think that the country is going in the right direction.  Altogether, 42% of respondents thought that Georgia was “definitely” or “mainly” going in the right direction, while 29% thought the country was off-track. Broken down by settlement type (see Chart 2), the data confirms that those living in the capital are much more critical of the government than rural Georgians. In part, this may be because Tbilisi residents tend to be better informed – and have closer contact with the political wrangling in the capital – while those in rural areas are mostly exposed to the government’s more tangible initiatives, such as infrastructure improvements in villages. Another plausible explanation is that in the capital, reforms led to accelerating expectations, whereas people in the countryside had lower expectations, and consequently were easier to satisfy.

According to the May survey, the issue Georgians are most concerned about now is employment, with this problem topping even worries about the country’s territorial integrity. The economic crisis has also resulted in the tightening of purse strings in Georgia: in May, 43% of those surveyed said they had reduced their spending on basic expenditures since the previous September. Even in 2008, many Georgians were already living on the margin: 39% stated they had enough money for food, but not clothes – and another 22% claimed there was not sufficient money even for food.

Looking forward

Despite these sobering numbers, Georgians have hope in the future of their country. When respondents were asked whether they thought their children would be better or worse off than they are, many respondents were uncertain, but only 2% thought that their children would be worse off, and 50% saw a brighter economic future for their children. Although the data cannot predict exactly what the future will hold, it can tell us that, when it comes to the long term, many Georgians have a positive outlook.

The future of the region also depends on the attitudes and behaviors of its citizens; CRRC’s data-gathering efforts endeavor to gauge them accurately. The data presented in this article is just the tip of the iceberg. Our respondents have told us about everything from what they think about the media, to whether they pray, to how often they smoke cigarettes, to what they think about their country’s foreign policy. Much of our data is publicly available at http://www.crrccenters.org/ – and we offer trainings on how to analyze data. Moreover, CRRC will soon have a web interface that allows you to check data online. You have a question about social, political, or economic developments? Explore the dataset (if you already know how), or get in touch with us at nana@crrccenters.org to find out more about the data and how to use it.

Julia Hon and Tamuna Khoshtaria are Research Fellows at the Caucasus Research Resource Centers (CRRC). CRRC is a joint program of the Eurasia Partnership Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and has worked with many major international organizations on various research projects, ranging from surveys and focus groups to complex mapping projects. CRRC data is regularly presented to members of AmCham at luncheons and other events. More information online at www.crrccenters.org.

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